Smart Politics: US Certifies Bolivia in the Drug War

It appears that the US has certified Bolivia's fight against illicit drugs. In doing so, US aid to Bolivia will not be interrupted. Laying aside the monumental failure and waste of time that the US "war on drugs" has become, the Bush administration's decision to certify Bolivia is smart politics (and another example of why Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon is the right man at the right time). First, Bolivia is teetering on the edge of chaos and the last thing the US needs to do is insert itself in this combustible mix. A de-certification could have created a rallying cry for Evo's supporters and aggrieved nationalists and, undoubtedly, put some wind back in Evo's sails (at a time when, it appears, he is backing into a corner and could possibly make some concessions to the opposition). No need to push Bolivia into failed state status.

Also, a de-certification would have aided Chavez's cause more than ours. I know many proud Bolivians and Evo supporters like to pretend otherwise, but Evo is Chavez's puppet. There is very little free agency going on here. The US recognizes this and, in its policy, it *should* seek to drive a wedge between the two knuckleheads. The drug certification process does this by de-certifying Venezuela, but certifying Bolivia. A Bolivian de-certification would have validated, in Evo's and his supporters' eyes, the relationship with Chavez. It would have strengthened the Venezuela-Bolivia relationship and further weakened the US-Bolivia relationship.

At Least Cuba Has Beaches

Okay, so next week we fly to beautiful Miami, Fl, for some well-deserved vacation. While I'm looking forward to seeing some friends and family, I know eventually the conversation is going to shift to the inevitable comparisons between Fidel Castro and Bolivia's Evo Morales. Some of my Cuban friends will say something like "So, how's Bolivia doing? You know, that's how Castro started...." And not wanting to be rude I'd say something like, "Yeah, Bolivia is going from bad to worse...."

But in fact, these comparisons to Fidel Castro drive me nuts. BOLIVIA IS NOT CUBA. While I'm no fan of dirty communists, there is good reason why Evo got elected. In Bolivia there is massive social inequality and, for all practical purposes, it is (or was) an apartheid-like state. Does any one really believe that South Africa under P.W. Botha did not deserve to change? These facile comparisons with Cuba ignore Bolivia's horrible social and political history and deny the great injustices that need to be addressed in order for the country to crawl it's way out of the bottom of the South American barrel.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of Evo. I think that cheeky bastard is doing great harm to that country. What Bolivia needs is strong democratic institutions, not his slow but steady dismantling of them. While I sympathise with Morales's "social justice" argument and his desire to advance "indigenous" causes, I really believe that in the end he will do more harm than good because, after he is finished, Bolivia's will be as far away from democracy as, dare I say it, Cuba is now. I support Evo's social vision, but I lament the way he is going about it.