The Mystery of Bolivia-Iran Relations

I don't get Evo Morales. I mean, I understand that he is knee-jerk anti-American and has a man-crush on Hugo Chavez, but I don't get why he is so careless at times. So seemingly myopic.
Case in point: Iran. Iran is a country that has managed to piss-off the Americans, Europeans, most Middle Eastern countries, and even the Russians and the Chinese. It is a country that kidnaps, for what else would you call it, innocent expats that return home for a visit with the family. A country the US claims, with justification, is actively supporting combat operations against US troops in Iraq and NATO troops in Afghanistan. A country that is known to support terrorists organizations such as Hezbollah. A country whose leader has expressed the wish that Israel should be wiped off the map. A country that is pursuing a nuclear weapons program and is in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. A country that has such bad relations with the US that many observers around the world are already beating war drums.

For Bolivia, this last point is particularly important. The US is the second most important market for Bolivian exports (behind Brazil) as well as a significant source of foreign assistance. Just as Venezuela is Bolivia's political and ideological patrón, the US is a major component of Bolivia's economic lifeline. US-Bolivian relations may not be at their most enlightened right now, but Bolivia is still significantly dependent on the US. Witness Alvaro Garcia Linera's recent visit to the US, lobbying for an extension of trade preferences.

Given the dynamics of the US-Bolivian relationship, why would the Bolivian government be cozying up to Iran at this particular time and run the risk of further eroding its relationship with the United States? One potential "benefit" for Bolivia could be further cementing its relationship with Venezuela (as there is no tangible benefit that a relationship with Iran can provide that will not be off-set by a break in US-Bolivia relations). But what can Iran do for Bolivia? Neither Iranian military nor political support count for much given Venezuela's competing influence (as well as the Chinese influence in the arms arena). Sure, Bolivia can talk about Iranian investment in Bolivian energy, but Iran is not the only country that is willing to do this.

It seems, then, that Bolivia is doing this only for the benefit of Venezuela (because Chavez's stock rises in the eyes of Ahmedinejad if Venezuela is able to "deliver" countries to Iran). Worse, not only does Bolivia not gain anything, its own interests are held at significant risk because, whether it wants to admit it or not, Bolivia needs the US to stay at least economically engaged. The US is not going to break relations over any one issue, but an accumulation of "issues" may drive the US to take a harder stance and that can only be bad for Bolivia. I don't see how Bolivia "wins" in this scenario, particularly given the dangers of further isolating the US. It's just poor statecraft.

At Least Cuba Has Beaches

Okay, so next week we fly to beautiful Miami, Fl, for some well-deserved vacation. While I'm looking forward to seeing some friends and family, I know eventually the conversation is going to shift to the inevitable comparisons between Fidel Castro and Bolivia's Evo Morales. Some of my Cuban friends will say something like "So, how's Bolivia doing? You know, that's how Castro started...." And not wanting to be rude I'd say something like, "Yeah, Bolivia is going from bad to worse...."

But in fact, these comparisons to Fidel Castro drive me nuts. BOLIVIA IS NOT CUBA. While I'm no fan of dirty communists, there is good reason why Evo got elected. In Bolivia there is massive social inequality and, for all practical purposes, it is (or was) an apartheid-like state. Does any one really believe that South Africa under P.W. Botha did not deserve to change? These facile comparisons with Cuba ignore Bolivia's horrible social and political history and deny the great injustices that need to be addressed in order for the country to crawl it's way out of the bottom of the South American barrel.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of Evo. I think that cheeky bastard is doing great harm to that country. What Bolivia needs is strong democratic institutions, not his slow but steady dismantling of them. While I sympathise with Morales's "social justice" argument and his desire to advance "indigenous" causes, I really believe that in the end he will do more harm than good because, after he is finished, Bolivia's will be as far away from democracy as, dare I say it, Cuba is now. I support Evo's social vision, but I lament the way he is going about it.